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Labour has big growth plans, but how is the UK economy faring?

  • To be able to explain the concept of output gaps in an economy
  • To be able to understand the impact of monetary policy on economic growth
  • To be able to explain the impact of industrial action on GDP numbers
CPD
Approx.30min

Her view is that lower rates will lead to higher consumer spending, and so the portion of GDP growth contributed by government spending will fall, while the proportion contributed by consumers will rise. 

Dickens view is that the lower rates should mean there are no negative quarters of UK GDP growth in 2024.

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Beck-Friis expects rates to be cut imminently in the UK and expects that the peak at which rates will rise in future, known as the terminal rate, will also be lower in future. 

Lyons says that with service sector inflation proving more “persistent” than might have been expected, “it is not the environment to aggressively cut rates right now”, but he does expect monetary policy to loosen from here. 

He says the BoE has been too focused on the immediate term when deciding monetary policy, whereas it should have be more forward looking and so cutting rates now would be getting a little ahead of the curve, which he believes would be a positive. 

David McCreadie, chief executive at Secure Trust Bank, says the fact inflation is falling and GDP is rising means the BoE can feel confident that cutting rates will not have a negative impact on inflation, or on economic growth. 

David Thorpe is senior investment editor at FT Adviser

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. How does the article define a positive output gap?

  2. Which of the below factors does Dickens say contributed to the unusually high GDP growth in the UK so far this year?

  3. What does Lyons say may happen around the time of the next UK Budget?

  4. Where does Lyons expect inflation to "settle" in the UK?

  5. Why does Dickens say an economic slowdown is "inevitable"?

  6. Why does Dickens say inflation will rise in the UK later this year?

Nearly There…

You have successfully answered all the questions correctly, well done!

You should now know…

  • To be able to explain the concept of output gaps in an economy
  • To be able to understand the impact of monetary policy on economic growth
  • To be able to explain the impact of industrial action on GDP numbers

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